Analysis from our Africa EV Readiness Index shows that Africa’s vehicle fleet could double by 2050. This presents both a risk and an opportunity — will this growth be met with polluting used cars and ICE motorcycles that currently dominate Africa’s roads, or will electric vehicles and more sustainable transportation options step in to meet this new demand?

3 Facts about Africa’s vehicle fleet

1. Africa’s motorization rates are currently very low: Africa’s average motorization rate (encompassing all classes of registered vehicles) is only 73 vehicles per 1000 people, compared to a global average of 300 and 180 in developing countries. 76% of African countries have motorization rates below 100.

FIGURE 1:  Motorization Rate (2017)

2. Low incomes are a major constraint to the growth of Africa’s vehicle fleets: Our analysis shows that motorization rates correlate strongly with per capita income. As a result, current vehicle demand is suppressed by low incomes across the continent.

FIGURE 2: Motorization Rate & Income, 2017

3. Africa’s vehicle fleet is projected to double by 2050: Motorization rates across Africa are poised to rise as its economies grow and the middle class expands. Using income and population growth projections to estimate future vehicle demand in every African country,¹ we find that Africa’s average motorization rate will double from 73 to 150 vehicles per 1,000 people by 2050. However, this projected rate remains well below both the current global average of 300 vehicles per 1,000 people and the developing country average of 180 vehicles per 1,000 people.

FIGURE 3: Motorization Rate 2050

What does this mean for EVs?

• African vehicle growth opens a critical yet narrowing window for EV adoption: The projected doubling of Africa’s vehicle fleet, coupled with its relatively small existing vehicle stock, presents a pivotal but narrowing window for the continent to transition from a dumping ground for polluting used vehicles to a hub for innovative electric mobility adoption. Early EV adoption could improve urban air quality, reduce costly fuel imports, and support broader efforts to modernize transportation systems across the continent. However, most African countries still lack the fundamental requirements for EV adoption at scale: reliable power grids, charging networks, accessible financing, and supportive policies. Without urgent action to build these foundations, this transformative opportunity may slip away as poor-quality used vehicles continue to flood African markets.

• Addressing affordability requires tackling both poverty and EV-specific barriers: Low incomes across Africa suppress overall vehicle demand, making the high upfront cost of EVs an even greater obstacle. Since motorization rates closely track per capita income, expanding EV adoption will require more than just financing innovations — it demands broader economic growth. While innovative asset financing and battery-as-a-service models show promise in increasing affordability, meaningful EV adoption will require both expanding access to vehicle ownership broadly through economic development and middle-class growth, alongside targeted solutions to bridge the EV affordability gap.

• Data gaps block smart EV policy and investment: Limited Africa-specific EV sector data leaves policymakers and investors operating in the dark. Most EV research, market assessments, and policy analyses focus on mature markets, with limited Africa-centric insights beyond South Africa and anecdotal narratives from startup hubs like Kenya. This data vacuum, combined with the misapplication of metrics designed for mature markets, makes it difficult to develop appropriate policies and attract investment for Africa’s unique context.

Conclusion

The doubling of Africa’s vehicle fleet by 2050 opens a unique opportunity for electric mobility, but realizing this potential requires urgent and thoughtful action. While some African countries are developing promising EV ecosystems, most face significant barriers around grid infrastructure, affordability, and enabling policies. Success will require not just addressing EV-specific challenges, but also tackling foundational issues of poverty, power sector development, and data gaps. These challenges are substantial but not insurmountable — with the right policies and investments, Africa can leverage this period of vehicle fleet growth to build cleaner, more sustainable transportation systems.

Endnotes

1. Except for Eritrea and South Sudan due to data gaps.