Big dams in Africa are back in the headlines once again — and not for positive reasons. The nearly-operational Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and Uganda’s launch of multiple projects have reignited 10-country geopolitical tension around equitable use of the Nile river. Meanwhile, Zambia’s Kariba Dam, which provides 80% of the nation’s electricity and serves neighboring countries, is facing severe power reduction due to prolonged drought.

Global discussion around African hydropower projects often oscillates between intense debate and periods when dams are ignored. Both extremes have led to the same result: a multi-decade failure to fully utilize the continent’s key resource. The recent spotlight offers an opportunity to confront the polarizing myths and reset the conversation with greater nuance (that’s what we do at the Hub!).

Hydroelectric power in Africa lies at the intersection of many complex social, environmental, and economic dynamics, characterized by both challenges and benefits:

• Its historical origins and ongoing challenges are rooted in the extractive ambition of former colonial powers;
• It mitigates emissions by providing low-carbon power to an energy-hungry continent;
• It plays a crucial role in climate adaptation by delivering affordable, reliable power for economic growth and by contributing to flood control;
• Its deployment has often been marred by poor governance, planning and execution, resulting in negative ecosystem impacts and community displacement; and
• It is increasingly vulnerable to climate change impacts, threatening its long-term performance and reliability.

For these reasons, it is essential to understand the role of hydropower on the continent, evaluate whether existing frameworks, policies, and strategies adequately minimize the negative social and environmental impacts of future projects, and assess the resilience of existing dams to climate change. Furthermore, the historical and current roles of policymakers and international financiers, such as the US and China, merit closer examination. While future writings will explore these nuanced issues in depth, moving beyond the typical polarized discourse, let us begin with seven fundamental facts that frame the discussion.

1. African countries depend heavily on hydropower for electricity generation. Of the 54 African nations, 41 have at least one operational hydropower plant. In 2022, hydropower generation reached 151 Terawatt-hours (TWh), accounting for three-quarters of all renewable electricity and 17% of the continent’s overall power generation. Countries like the DRC, Lesotho, Central African Republic, Ethiopia, Uganda, and Sierra Leone derive 90% or more of their electricity from hydropower. Nineteen African nations depend on hydropower for at least half of their national electricity supply, making it a crucial energy source for much of the continent.

FIGURE 1:

2. Africa’s hydropower infrastructure is primarily a large-scale conventional reservoir system. Based on our database of 297 projects, the capacity ranges from mini 90-kilowatt (kW) installations to massive 6.4-gigawatt (GW) facilities. Small-scale plants (<10 megawatts (MW)) represent more than one-third of installations, while medium-scale plants (<100 MW) account for 42% of operating units. Although large-scale projects (>100 MW) constitute less than a quarter of all projects, they account for 85% of Africa’s current hydropower capacity (see Tableau map). Most projects rely on conventional reservoir technology, typically involving elevations greater than 8 meters. While effective for large-scale power generation, the technology has faced significant criticism for its environmental and social impacts. By contrast, run-of-river projects, which make up less than 20% of Africa’s operational capacity, harness natural river flow and elevation but are susceptible to seasonal flow variation.
3. Africa’s existing hydropower capacity is aging and requires rehabilitation. Hydroelectric power has a long history on the continent, with a 100-year-old plant still operating in DRC. With the average hydropower plant in Africa being 33 years old, aging infrastructure is a growing challenge (see Figure 2). In response, the African Development Bank’s Africa Hydropower Modernization Program has identified 21 plants, with a combined capacity of 4.6 GW, in urgent need of upgrades, along with another 10 GW of existing capacity expected to require modernization investment over the next 10 years.

FIGURE 2: 

4. Africa’s hydropower resource is significantly underutilized. Africa’s current operational hydropower capacity stands at approximately 37 GW, less than Norway’s total power generation capacity, and less than one-tenth of Africa’s techno-economic potential of 474 GW. Even when including projects at the pre-construction, construction, and announced stage, Africa’s total future capacity remains just a quarter of Europe’s and one-tenth of Asia’s current operational hydropower capacity (see Figure 3). According to the latest International Energy Agency’s market forecast, sub-Saharan Africa is projected to fall short of the 75 GW hydropower capacity target by 2030, jeopardizing the continent’s energy ambitions.

FIGURE 3:

5. Rising costs have impacted African hydropower development. Global hydropower costs have been trending upwards since 2010, despite a slight decrease in 2023. The weighted average levelized cost of electricity(LCOE) of hydropower grew from 4.3 cents/kWh in 2010 to 5.7 cents/kWh in 2023. African projects have not been exempted from this trend. Although the rise has not been as sharp, the cost of newly commissioned utility-scale hydropower plants in Africa grew by 32% and LCOE increased by 16% between the periods of 2010-2015 and 2016-2023 (see Figure 4). Several factors contribute to this cost increase including environmental, social, and governance requirements; extended lead times and delays; supply chain disruptions; and the limited availability of project development companies.

FIGURE 4:

6. African hydropower installations continue despite funding challenges. African hydroelectric projects received 7% of all energy financing to Africa between 2012-2021. Public financing peaked in 2013 and 2016 to about $5 billion, with China as the leading bilateral funder (see Figure 5). Multilateral bank funding (from the World Bank, African Development Bank, and European Investment Bank) has dropped to less than $600 million over the last few years. In response to this decline in funding and political pressures often associated with western support for large dams, countries like Gabon are turning to alternative financing sources such as sovereign wealth funds. Despite challenges, Africa’s hydropower capacity growth persists, with 25% of existing projects coming online in the last decade

FIGURE 5:

7. Climate change will have regionally variable impacts on Africa’s hydropower. Because climate change can exacerbate the extremes of both droughts and wet seasons, it impacts hydropower differently across regions.​​ While some areas may see increased generation due to heavier rainfall, others will suffer from reduced output due to droughts, as lower rainfall and higher temperatures increase evaporation. In Western and Southern Africa, rivers are expected to experience higher risk of droughts, while East Africa faces a higher risk of flooding, complicating hydropower management.

Africa’s hydropower sector presents a complex mix of challenges and opportunities. While capacity continues to grow, the sector faces significant hurdles, including aging infrastructure, escalating costs, reduced public funding, and the diverse impacts of climate change. Despite these hurdles, hydropower remains a vital energy lifeline for many African nations, offering reliable, low-carbon electricity. With proper modernization, sustainable development, and strategic investment, the sector holds immense potential to support Africa’s energy and development goals.