U.S. conversation on renewable hydrogen — often called green hydrogen — has swung from peak hype in 2022 to doom in 2025. The U.S. had taken a major leadership role to demonstrate, scale, and unlock a new clean hydrogen market. Now, the Department of Energy is re-reviewing already awarded regional hydrogen hubs, and Congress is considering legislation that could eliminate the hydrogen production tax credit before a single dollar is claimed. The U.S. retreat from leadership on hydrogen, and clean energy more broadly, will undoubtedly slow innovation. However, it’s unlikely to have a significant impact on Africa’s hydrogen landscape.
Africa’s renewable hydrogen space is best described as export-oriented, mega-scale, and constrained by energy development and a lack of viable buyers. Europe has played a major role from the beginning — signing bilateral agreements, supporting strategy documents, funding pilot projects, and now backing large-scale projects. The U.S., by contrast, has taken a backseat, limited to just two projects, mostly focused on technical assistance. As such, the future of the 91 proposed hydrogen production projects still active across 19 African countries will be shaped less by U.S. policy shifts. Instead, high production costs, Europe’s continued engagement, and competition from other producers and power-intensive end uses are more likely to have a greater impact. Let me explain:
The latest hydrogen production projections are smaller — a valuable reality check. Back in 2021, 8 out of 10 leading energy planning organizations projected a 4- to 7-fold growth in clean hydrogen production by mid-century, assuming cost declines that never materialized. By the end of 2024, global hydrogen investment had dropped by half, financial investment decisions had not moved beyond 4%, and just 6% of proposed capacity had identified a buyer (BloombergNEF 2025). Consequently, once enthusiastic organizations like DNV and BloombergNEF are revising their forecasts downward. A reality check that will definitely cascade to African projects.
Europe’s import market is shrinking, reducing demand for Africa’s renewable hydrogen. The majority of African hydrogen projects are export-focused, driven by European import forecasts, targets, and policies like the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and market-making instruments like Germany’s H2 Global. But expectations are now being recalibrated. RMI recently revised the EU’s renewable hydrogen consumption target for 2030 from 20 down to just 3 million tons per year, making the potential African export market far smaller than originally projected. And even that limited demand will be highly competitive, with African countries facing rivals like the UAE, Chile, and Oman. Outside Europe, countries like Japan could be an opportunity for Africa, but competition is high there too, and access will likely be limited to a few select countries. Further underlining the need to rightsize African hydrogen ambitions and projects.
Global competition for clean technology dominance might help keep some African hydrogen projects alive. China currently controls 55% of the global hydrogen production supply chain, while the U.S. and Europe hold around 40% of the market. Renewable hydrogen production, therefore, remains one of the few clean technologies where the U.S. and Europe have some competitive chance against China. As the U.S. falls back, Europe may double down on maintaining its role in Africa’s hydrogen landscape, where it already has a significant footprint. Although they have yet to deliver, European countries have made the largest commitments to African projects, and European entities are involved in nearly all hydrogen projects on the continent. Therefore, even with a shrinking export market, projects in countries like Mauritania, Egypt, and Namibia may retain some momentum driven by Europe’s strategic interest and broader technology competition.
Weak domestic demand will make it difficult for export-oriented hydrogen projects to pivot to local markets. The most salient applications for renewable hydrogen are traditional use cases like fertilizer production, and chemical processing and refining. Given the continent’s challenges with fertilizer supply, this could, in theory, create a large domestic market. However, the high switching costs and limited industrial base make local use cases for renewable hydrogen nearly non-existent. As a result, current export-oriented projects will struggle to find viable local offtakers without parallel investment in Africa’s industrial growth.
African data centers and mining operations are already competing with hydrogen for power. As interest in artificial intelligence grows and efforts to diversify mineral supply chains away from China accelerate, cheap power sources in African countries are attracting increased attention from data center operators and mining companies. For example, Angola recently agreed to build a transmission line from the Lauca Dam to a mining site in the Democratic Republic of Congo — power that had previously been considered for a hydrogen project. Supplying electricity to mining sites and data centers is proving to be far more straightforward, both in Africa and the U.S., compared to setting up hydrogen production projects that still require uncertain offtake agreements.
Conclusion
Technology hype-and-bust cycles are normal. Given how cheap solar is today, it’s hard to remember the bust the US solar industry experienced when rooftop solar economics shifted in the early 2010s. Our collective memory of technology is unreliable, which makes periodic reality checks essential. While U.S. enthusiasm for hydrogen is cooling, what will truly shape Africa’s hydrogen outlook is more localized to Europe. High production cost, weakening European demand, competition from other power-demand centers and better-resourced global players, and the geopolitics of clean technology innovation will all play a bigger role in shaping Africa’s near-term hydrogen trajectory. In the long term, without building domestic demand, strengthening energy infrastructure and developing local capacity for innovation on low-cost hydrogen, Africa will remain a marginal player.