This memo updates project information since our October 2023 analysis.

Coal-to-power remains exceedingly modest outside South Africa

Using the latest data, 40 coal-fired power plants totaling ~52 GW of installed capacity currently provide about 26% of all electricity produced on the African continent, a four percentage point decrease since our last update. This equals about 2.4% of the global total (see Table 1). Nearly all of Africa’s coal capacity is in one country, South Africa, while another ten countries combine for 0.36% of the world total. Most African countries have no coal power at all.

What about new coal?

While Africa’s current coal capacity is negligible, many fear a potential boom, especially in countries with domestic coal resources. The latest available data from the Global Coal Plant Tracker lists 28 potential new coal plants (excluding refurbishments) across Africa with a total capacity of about 14.4 GW. But many of these projects are unlikely to ever be completed.

To assess how many will actually happen, we analyzed publicly available information for each project and rated the likelihood of completion (see Table 2). Here’s what we found:

• In 2024, two plants came online: 800 MW at Kusile (Unit 5) in South Africa and 335 MW at Hwange (Unit 8) in Zimbabwe.
• Only three coal plants with a combined 1.4 GW appear Likely to commission anytime soon: the final 800 MW Unit 6 at Kusile in South Africa, 300 MW at Mulungwa, and 300 MW at Maamba Units 3-4 in Zambia.
• Nine plants are Unlikely. A further 16 projects of 9.8 GW are Unclear; progress is possible, but most are in a very early phase.
• Zimbabwe has had multiple new announcements but actual progress is shrouded in secrecy and misinformation.
• Zambia announced two new coal plants to help meet growing demand from mining and to compensate for shortages from drought-affected hydropower.

Conclusion: We remain confident that the future of coal in Africa is dead.