The incoming African Development Bank (AfDB) president will face a set of unprecedented challenges that could compromise his/her tenure before it even gets started. The trade war unleashed by the US is reorganizing global power and markets. Any slowdown in the Chinese economy, Africa’s largest trade partner, is bound to have negative consequences for the continent. Donor countries, especially in the West, are scaling back their commitments, while conflicts in sub-Saharan Africa are unfolding with little global attention. The International Monetary Fund’s downward revision of Africa’s growth forecast reflects all these tectonic changes. The new president must resist the urge to solely focus on crisis-management; it’s precisely in these destabilizing times that Africa needs fearless leadership with a strategic vision for growth.

Top of the growth-agenda for the AfDB president must be: reliable, abundant energy. The continent lags every other region in energy availability which is reflected in its economic standing. The Bank has rightly prioritized energy, and the power sector consistently ranks first or second in its sectoral investments. However, progress has been far too slow. Between 2019 and 2023, the Bank has only added 1.7 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity and connected less than 6 million people in a continent that requires over 160 GW of additional capacity and has 600 million needing basic access to electricity. This 1% pace over four years is simply unacceptable.

To shift progress on energy (and other sectors) into high-gear, the new AfDB president must narrow the Bank’s fragmented focus to growing its capital; linking infrastructure to value addition; and expanding the continent’s skilled labor. As these bigger reforms take shape, here are six early actions the incoming AfDB president can take on energy to set a bold ambition, strengthen the bank’s leadership, and advance new policy directions for a growing, power-deprived continent.

🚀 Set Bold Ambitions 

• Adopt the Modern Energy Minimum. As Africa’s premier development bank, the AfDB should adopt an energy vision that matches the continent’s growth aspirations. The current benchmark for minimum electricity access is far too low — translating to just a $0.6/day income. The AfDB should pursue a modern energy minimum (MEM) of at least 1,000 kWh per person per year, a level that supports incomes closer to ~$7/day. The MEM tracks higher residential consumption levels and energy use outside of the home, which enables productive work, business creation, and improved quality of life. Ten African countries have already endorsed the MEM through the Kigali Communique — it’s time for the incoming AfDB president to raise the bar for the rest of the continent.
• Go far bigger on innovative financing. Africa has a $110 billion annual energy investment gap to reach its stated energy goals, much of which is expected to come from foreign investors who typically prefer to lend in hard currency. Unfortunately, many African countries have volatile and unstable currencies raising project costs, burdening utilities with debt, and straining government reserves through reliance on sovereign guarantees. At the same time, development assistance finance is declining and US-led tariff wars are disrupting global markets undermining dollar stability, further complicating energy finance. In this wild new environment, Africa needs more self-reliant and resilient financial solutions. The AfDB must take the lead by championing innovative hedging mechanisms that reduce hard currency exposure — such as its proposed mineral-basket-backed financing mechanism.

💪 Strengthen AfDB’s Leadership 

• Accelerate hydropower modernization. Hydropower remains the backbone of Africa’s electricity supply. At least 41 countries operate hydro plants, and 19 rely on them for over 50% of their power. But much of this infrastructure is aging, leading to declining output and operational issues. The AfDB has recognized this challenge, identifying 21 plants (5 GW) requiring urgent upgrades and projecting another 10 GW needing investment over the next decade. It launched a Hydropower Modernization Program, yet since releasing its analysis in 2023, the Bank has committed under $4 million — with no funds disbursed. The continent cannot afford to let this critical infrastructure deteriorate.

• Assume a prominent role in the continent’s energy planning. Regional integration and power pools are going to be a necessary part of achieving energy abundance, given the continent’s varied energy resource endowment. AUDA-NEPAD is currently leading the development of a continent-wide energy planning master plan with support from the European Union – Global Technical Assistance Facility (EU-GTAF), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). Where is the AfDB?

🆕 Chart New Policy Courses 

• Make all public energy infrastructure deals transparent. Lack of transparency in power purchase agreements (PPAs) across Africa increases debt burdens for governments, inflates electricity costs for consumers, and slows the pace of energy deployment. Lack of information also skews risk assessments, creates an uncompetitive environment, heightens foreign investment risk perception and drives up the cost of capital for African energy projects, which already face a 2-3x cost premium compared to mature economies. Put simply, contracts involving public funds must be open to the public. As a trusted partner to utilities in 45 countries through its Electricity Regulation Index and one of the largest providers of energy finance on the continent, the AfDB is well positioned to set a new disclosure and transparency standard for all publicly financed energy projects.

• Lift the ban on nuclear energy. The AfDB is one of the 21 development finance agencies that has excluded nuclear power from its technology options. As a result, the Bank has played no role in supporting African countries exploring nuclear options — and it currently lacks the in-house technical capacity to engage on the issue. Energy-hungry, growing African economies need access to firm, low-carbon power — especially as climate and water management challenges undermine hydropower reliability. At least 11 African countries are expected to be ready for nuclear energy between 2030 and 2050, and 15 have already signed cooperation agreements with Russia, the US, or China to explore nuclear adoption. The Bank must adopt a more inclusive energy technology strategy — one that reflects the evolving needs and ambitions of its member states.

After the elections on May 29th, all eyes will turn to the incoming AfDB president, who will begin their term in September 2025. She/He has the unique opportunity to set a transformative energy infrastructure agenda for Africa. And as the saying goes, start as you mean to go on — beginning with these six ambitious early steps that would put the AfDB on a course to greater impact. In such a time of global instability, Africa’s leading development institution cannot afford to shrink back or play it safe; it must lead boldly, guiding the continent towards a high-energy, high-growth future.