[Update Oct 2023] Coal’s Future in Africa is (Still) Dim
The Issue
Retiring coal-fired power plants is a core strategy for transitioning global power systems to a cleaner future. Several African countries have coal resources, which has raised worries about a potential surge in new coal plants on the continent.
Relevance
South Africa’s coal dependence and its huge size relative to other power systems have skewed regional aggregates. Outside of that one country, coal power is extremely limited on the continent, the pipeline of potential new projects is small, and most of these projects will never reach completion. Nevertheless, misleading expectations of African coal have stoked fears and influenced investment policies.
Our Approach
The Hub’s African Coal Death Watch tracks all proposed coal-fired power projects on the continent and assesses their likelihood of reaching completion.
Africa’s coal power in global context
For more expert analysis, read our latest memo on coal in Africa.
Previous Analysis
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October 2023 Update: Coal's Future in Africa is (Still) Dim
Here’s what we found:
– Only two coal plants with 1.9 GW appear likely to commission anytime soon. These are the final large new units at Kusile in South Africa and one medium-sized unit at Hwange in Zimbabwe.
– Seven plants are already shelved or very unlikely. A further 16 projects of 5.8 GW are unclear; progress is possible, but they are all in a very early phase.
– The 870 MW ZhongXin project in Zimbabwe (previously rated Likely) reportedly requires additional financing and has been downgraded to Unclear.
Conclusion: We remain confident that the future of coal in Africa is dead.
Full analysis here.
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July 2021 Update: Coal's Future in Africa is (Still) Dim
Here’s what we found:
– Only one coal plant with just 0.3 GW appears likely to commission anytime soon.
– Nine plants are already shelved or very unlikely. A further 12 projects of 6.9 GW are unclear; progress is possible, but they are all in a very early phase.
– Zimbabwe, a country notorious for announcing projects that rarely reach fruition, is the main outlier. It is home to the only project rated as likely and a quarter of total pipeline capacity. The 2.8 GW Sengwa project (previously rated Unclear) lost its financial backing in June 2021 and has been downgraded to No/Unlikely.
Conclusion: We remain confident that the future of coal in Africa is dead.
Full analysis here.
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May 2021 Update: Coal's Future in Africa is (Still) Dim
Here’s what we found:
– Only one coal plant with just 0.3 GW appears likely to commission anytime soon.
– Eight plants are already shelved or very unlikely. A further 13 projects of 9.7 GW are unclear; progress is possible, but they are all in a very early phase.
– Zimbabwe, a country notorious for announcing projects that rarely reach fruition, is the main outlier. It is home to the only project rated as likely and over one-third of the capacity we rate as still unclear.
Conclusion: We remain confident that the future of coal in Africa is dead.
Full analysis here.
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December 2020: Coal's Future in Africa is Dim
Conclusion: Only one (relatively small) of the 25 potential coal projects appears likely to commission soon. Nine further projects, with a combined proposed capacity of 3,410 MW, appear possible, although they are all in a very early pre-construction phase. Fifteen are already cancelled or appear unlikely to reach completion. In short, the future of coal power in Africa is dead.
Full analysis here.
Featured Insights
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[Update Oct 2023] Coal’s Future in Africa is (Still) Dim
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Coffee Break Briefing with Todd Moss and Jake Kincer: Africa’s Coal Pipeline 
Coffee Break Briefing with Todd Moss and Jake Kincer: Africa’s Coal Pipeline
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Africa is Not a (Coal) Country: A reply to Nature Energy 
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